(Berlin) The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) yesterday announced its annual economic research findings which report that the dramatic impact of September 11 will stabilise and begin recovery during 2002. The report also forecasts record growth for 2003 with a massive rebound for the travel and tourism industry.
In a first for the industry, WTTC has been able to identify and separate the different effects of the recession and September 11 on travel and tourism. Through its research, WTTC estimates the impact of September 11 will cause a 7.4 per cent decline in travel- and-tourism-related demand in years 2001 and 2002 combined, which will result in a total worldwide loss to employment of over 10 million jobs. But WTTC is confident this downward trend is finite and reverse will begin in the second half of 2002.
“Our research results show a very clear picture of last year’s impact on the industry and how that will continue in the months ahead,” says Jean-Claude Baumgarten, WTTC President. “But the industry has reacted positively and swiftly through cutting costs, creative advertising, innovative promotions and seeking new market opportunities. In my mind 2002 is dedicated to stabilisation and recovery, and this process requires continued partnership between the private and public sectors,” he states.
According to Baumgarten, a massive worldwide rebound will occur in 2003 with global travel and tourism demand forecast to increase in real terms by six percent. “During this process we will see the creation of 6.8 million jobs, replacing most of the business and jobs lost in the extended wake of September 11,” he says.
WTTC forecasts the United States and Germany will be the two countries most affected by September 11, suffering decreases in travel and tourism demand of US$92.3 billion and US$24.7 billion respectively for years 2001 and 2002 combined.
The research also shows a strong upward trend for the industry over the next decade with long-term annual growth at 4.5 per cent in real terms for the global industry.
Traditional tourism markets such as France, USA and UK continue to take a back-seat to emerging growth markets in travel and tourism. Turkey is projected to be the top growth country in the world over the next ten years, achieving 10.2 per cent annualised growth in travel and tourism-related demand over the next ten years. In second and third ranking are India and China, with 9.7 per cent and 8.5 per cent respectively.
Each year the Council conducts detailed macroeconomic analysis of the travel and tourism industry in 160 countries, the World and its regions, focusing on factors including employment, demand, and contribution to GDP.
WTTC research is designed to implement the methodological framework for Tourism Satellite Accounting approved by the United Nations in 2000.
WTTC is the global business leaders’ forum for travel and tourism. Its members are chief executives from all sectors of the industry including accommodation, catering, manufacturing, cruises, entertainment, recreation, transportation and other travel-related services. Its central goal is to work with governments to realise the full economic impact of the industry.