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Boeing predicts US$1.5tr China aviation market

Boeing predicts US$1.5tr China aviation market

Boeing has forecast that airlines in China will require 8,700 new planes by 2040, valued at $1.47 trillion, to meet expanding commercial air travel demand.

The 20-year forecast reflects the market’s rebound and further evolution of its airline business models.

Boeing shared the China forecast as part of the 2021 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), a long-term forecast of demand for commercial airplanes and services.

China’s economic fundamentals lay the foundation for healthy air traffic increases, including 4.4 per cent annual economic growth and a middle-income demographic that will double by 2040, according to the CMO.


By 2030, China’s domestic passenger market will exceed intra-European traffic; by 2040, China’s domestic traffic is expected to also exceed air travel within North America.

The CMO also forecasts that China’s civil aviation industry will require more than 400,000 new aviation personnel by 2040, including pilots, technicians and cabin crew.

“The rapid recovery of Chinese domestic traffic during the pandemic speaks to the market’s underlying strength and resilience,” said Richard Wynne, managing director, China marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes.

“In addition, there are promising opportunities to significantly expand international long-haul routes and air freight capacity.

“Longer term, there is the potential for low-cost carrier growth to further build on single-aisle demand.”