China will require 3,400
new airplanes worth about $340 billion over the next 20 years, according to
The Boeing Company’s updated annual forecast for the commercial
airplane market. The complete forecast, known as the Boeing Current Market
Outlook, is available on the Boeing Web site
Over the forecast period, China will have the fastest-growing market,
making it the largest market outside of the U.S. for new commercial
China will continue leading all domestic air travel markets with a
long-term passenger-kilometer growth rate of 8.8 percent. Following the
anticipated surge in passenger traffic for the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games,
the China domestic market will grow nearly five-fold by 2026 to become
slightly larger than today’s intra-North American market.
With the continued high rate of growth for China air travel and air
cargo markets, China’s fleet will nearly quadruple to 4,460 airplanes by
the end of the forecast period—2026.
Single-aisle airplanes such as the Boeing 737 will be the largest
category with total new airplane deliveries reaching 2,200. Intermediate
twin-aisles such as the Boeing 787 Dreamliner and 777 will see
approximately 750 airplane deliveries. When combined, the single-aisle and
intermediate twin-aisle market will make up 90 percent of China’s total
delivery dollars. About 330 regional jets and 90 airplanes of
747-and-larger size will be delivered.
With China’s cargo markets leading the global industry, Chinese air
carriers will add about 300 freighter airplanes by 2026. Its total fleet of
freighter airplanes will more than quadruple in size.
“China domestic frequencies have increased more than sixteen-fold since
1990 while airplane sizes have remained about the same,” said Randy
Tinseth, Boeing Commercial Airplanes vice president, Marketing. “The
Chinese domestic market’s projected average growth is almost 9 percent.
Boeing believes the current trend of more frequencies and nonstop flights
will continue to accommodate this growth through a focus on single-aisle
airplanes such as the Boeing 737, which is renowned for its superior
performance, efficiency and low operating costs.”
Air-travel growth between China and North America as well as between
China and Europe will more than double in size during the next 20 years,
and the number of city pairs will more than triple. There will be an
increased use of intermediate twin-aisle airplanes to and from all mainland
China major cities, fueling frequency growth and new nonstop services. The
Boeing 787 Dreamliner and 777 are the perfect combination of airplanes to
satisfy this kind of development.
Worldwide, Boeing projects investments of $2.8 trillion for 28,600 new
commercial airplanes to be delivered during the next 20 years. The Boeing
market forecast is widely regarded as the most comprehensive and respected
analysis of the commercial aviation market.
Boeing and China have a long, successful history of working together.
Since 1972, the world’s largest aerospace company and the world’s most
populous nation have worked together to provide safe, advanced and
dependable airplanes for the benefit of both China’s traveling public as
well as for its commercial aviation industry, a critical factor in China’s