Boeing has forecast that airlines will need 29,000 new airplanes through 2028, valued at US$3.2 trillion, but that recovery from the economic downturn will be a gradual one.
Boeing Commercial Airplanes Vice President of Marketing Randy Tinseth shared the company’s market data and forecast at a media conference which focused on the global and Oceania commercial airplane market.
Over the next 20 years airlines in Australia, New Zealand and the South Pacific Islands will require 670 new airplanes valued at approximately US$90 billion.
“Economic conditions obviously affect air travel in the region,” Tinseth added. “Oceania air travel growth is expected to be above 5%, compared to a world average growth of 4.9%.”
67% of Oceania’s commercial airplane deliveries through 2028 will be for growth and the remainder of airplane deliveries will replace older, less efficient airplanes.
Airlines and the aviation industry in general have been hurt by a challenging and volatile business environment. The world economy has been in recession, passenger and cargo traffic have declined, and fuel prices are volatile.
“But data indicates that the economic downturn has reached bottom and recovery has begun,” Tinseth said. “Global recovery will be a long, slow process, and airlines will continue to adapt to the realities of the market.”
Looking at the global picture Tinseth noted that as of the third quarter of 2009, Boeing had a backlog of 3,400 airplanes, valued at US$254 billion.
“It is encouraging that 27% of our 20-year forecast already is on order,” Tinseth said. “Equally important is that this backlog is well balanced - by type of airplane, by airline business model, and region of the world.”
“Boeing is focused on a simple strategy,” Tinseth said. “And that is to provide our customers with airplanes that are the right size with the right capabilities at the right time.”