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Boeing predicts strong aviation market for decades to come

Boeing predicts strong aviation market for decades to come

A strong commercial aviation industry, stable defence spending and the need to service all platforms throughout their life-cycle are driving a growing aerospace market, according to the Boeing Market Outlook.

Released at the Paris Air Show, the outlook values the aerospace and defence market at $8.7 trillion over the next decade, up from $8.1 trillion a year ago.

The Boeing Market Outlook includes a $3.1 trillion projected demand for commercial planes through 2028 as operators replace older jets with more capable and fuel-efficient models, and expand their fleets to accommodate the steady rise in air travel across emerging and established markets.

The research also projects $2.5 trillion of defence and space opportunities during the next decade as governments modernise military platforms and systems, pursue new technologies and capabilities and accelerate exploration from sea to space.

The projected spending – spanning military aircraft, autonomous systems, satellites, spacecraft and other products – continues to be global in nature with 40 per cent of expenditures expected to originate outside of the United States.


Supporting the defence, space and commercial platforms with life-cycle solutions will fuel a services market valued at $3.1 trillion through 2028.

“Aerospace and defence continues to be a healthy and growing industry over the long term, boosted by strong fundamentals across the commercial, defence and services sectors and demand that is geographically-diverse and more balanced between replacement and growth than ever before,” said Boeing chief financial officer and executive vice president of enterprise performance and strategy, Greg Smith.

Commercial Market Outlook

Boeing also unveiled its 2019 Commercial Market Outlook, a longer-term forecast that delves deeper into the market for commercial planes and services.

The newest research shows growing passenger volumes and increasing plane retirements will drive the need for 44,040 new jets, valued at $6.8 trillion over the next two decades and up three percent from a year ago.

The global commercial plane fleet will also sustain the need for aviation services valued at $9.1 trillion, leading to a total commercial market opportunity of $16 trillion through 2038.

“Time and again, commercial aviation has shown itself to be extremely resilient.

“Notwithstanding some recent moderation in passenger and cargo traffic growth, all indications are pointing to our industry sustaining its unprecedented streak of profitable expansion.

“In fact, we see a market that is broader, deeper and more balanced than we have seen in the past,” said Boeing commercial marketing vice president, Randy Tinseth.

“The healthy market fundamentals will fuel a doubling of the commercial fleet over the next two decades and a massive ecosystem of life-cycle solutions to maintain and support it.”

Of the new plane deliveries, forecasters say 44 per cent will go toward replacing ageing aircraft while the rest will accommodate traffic growth.

Together, the new jets support an industry where passenger traffic will grow an average 4.6 per cent and cargo traffic will grow an average 4.2 per cent.

Factoring in the new planes and the jets that would remain in service, the global commercial fleet is expected to reach 50,660 planes by 2038.

This is the first time the projected fleet has crested the 50,000 mark.