European and US airlines could remove more frequencies in the winter and ground more aircraft than usual as high fuel costs make weaker services uneconomic, aviation analyst John Strickland has warned.

Strickland, who heads up JLS Consulting, made the prediction during a World Aviation Festival webinar on 16 July, in which he discussed how the aviation industry can respond to the current jet fuel crisis.

“No matter how much airlines reduced prices to stimulate demand, they still wouldn’t be covering the cost of the higher price of fuel. And I think we’ll see more planes on the ground as a result,” he said.

Airlines normally operate fewer flights during the winter, when weaker demand can leave them with spare capacity. They also typically use lower fares to stimulate bookings. However, Strickland believes high fuel costs will make it more difficult for carriers to justify operating marginal services this year.

“I think what we’ll see this winter is a higher level of cancellations,” he said. “I don’t see airlines suddenly cutting prices left, right, and centre in order to stimulate demand.”

He also stressed that some markets and cabin classes have already seen greater price increases than others, while individual airlines’ exposure varies according to their hedging strategies and ability to pass additional costs on to passengers.

The warning comes as the International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasts that fuel costs will rise by nearly 40% to $350 billion in 2026, with fuel accounting for 31.4% of total operating expenses.

Despite the pressure, Strickland said airlines had so far prevented the crisis from developing into the immediate supply breakdown some initially feared, with many carriers finding alternative sources of fuel or using hedging strategies to shield themselves from the full extent of short-term price increases.

According to Strickland, the number of services removed from schedules has so far been relatively modest. However, he expects these decisions to become more difficult as the industry moves beyond the peak summer period. Airlines are continuously assessing booking levels and individual route performance to determine which frequencies remain viable.

John Strickland will continue the conversation at World Aviation Festival, held from 13-15 October 2026 at FIL in Lisbon. Alongside interviewing several airline CEOs on stage, he will moderate the panel “Driving the aviation growth of tomorrow” – featuring Len Corrado, CEO of Flair Airlines; Jude Bricker, Board Director of Allegiant; Eivind Roald, CEO of Norse Atlantic Airways; and Tero Taskila, CEO of beOnd.

For more information about World Aviation Festival 2026, visit www.terrapinn.com/conference/aviation-festival.