New modelling from Tourism Economics, part of Oxford Economics, paints a stark picture for travel demand across the Middle East in 2026 as a result of the escalating conflict involving Iran.

Global leisure travel spending is projected to reach $15 trillion in 2040, up from $5 trillion in 2024. With an anticipated 7% annual uptick in leisure spending, the Middle East is expected to outperform all markets except Asia Pacific during the next five years. Destinations, airlines, hotels and industry stakeholders from around the world will gather to explore these unprecedented opportunities at Arabian Travel Market (ATM) 2026, which will take place at the Dubai World Trade Centre from 4-7 May.

The World Sustainable Travel & Hospitality Awards (WSTHA) and Tourism Economics have released the inaugural Global Destination Resilience Index 2025—a landmark study designed to measure how well destinations are prepared to balance growth with sustainability in an era of rapid global travel expansion.