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Cause for hope in new PATA Tourism Forecasts

Some cause for industry hope in new PATA Tourism Forecasts

There’s some cause for cautious optimism in the tourism and travel industry across the Asia Pacific region, according to PATA’s Strategic Intelligence Director John Koldowski.The PATA Tourism Forecasts 2009-2011, to be published this month, suggest growth in international arrivals for many destinations across the region - despite the global economic downturn. The Forecasts indicate a very mixed bag of results with significant variations across Asia Pacific.

“The numbers of international arrivals, from both within the region and from long-haul source markets, are expected to remain largely positive - but the strong growth rates of recent years will prove now to be the exception rather than the rule,” says John.

The PATA Tourism Forecasts publication for 2009-2011 covers visitor arrivals, trends and market share analysis for over 40 destinations and departure forecasts for 12 Asia Pacific source markets. Tourism receipts for 19 Asia Pacific destinations are also included.

“There are certainly opportunities for growth and we are working hard to discover and exploit them with our members and the industry at large. There is a real battle for market share across the region. It’s a tough time for our industry and the need for accurate forecasting has never been greater. We’re quite sure that this latest authoritative publication from PATA will help analysts, planners and business leaders to adapt to fast-changing market conditions,” adds John Koldowski.


Highlights include:

South East Asia: International arrivals will grow to nearly 77 million by 2011 (compared to 62.2 million in 2007) with only Myanmar likely to record negative growth results.

Northeast Asia: Mongolia and Macau (SAR) to grow at double digit rates; international arrivals to reach almost 240 million by 2011 (206 million in 2007).
South Asia: Sri Lanka to remain in negative territory but the region will benefit as a whole from an increase in international arrivals to over nine million by 2011 (7.4 million in 2007).

Americas: Chile is expected to perform above average with growth forecasted at 4.26 percent. International arrivals by 2011 are forecast to top 106 million (90.2 million in 2007).

PATA Tourism Forecasts are created each year using proprietary forecasting models under the expert direction of leading academics Professor Lindsay Turner of Australia’s Victoria University and Professor Stephen Witt of the Hong Kong Polytechnic University.  Visit the PATA website for a special podcast that summarises the Tourism Forecasts for 2009-2011.