Europe’s capacity recovery as a percentage of 2019 levels has broken out of its narrow 13-week range of 86%-87%, reaching close to 89%. This is the closest to 2019 capacity since before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Europe’s total seat capacity is at 88.6% in the week commencing 22-Aug-2022, which is a shortfall of 11.4% against the equivalent week in 2019.
Europe remains fourth in the regional ranking, above Asia Pacific, where capacity is down by 22.8% versus 2019, and the Middle East, where capacity is down by 14.2%. Africa capacity is down by 11.0%, North America by 8.5%, and Latin America is down by 2.3% (the latter is the best performance of any region since before the pandemic).

Not only has this week’s capacity recovery reached a new high for Europe, but projected capacity for 4Q2022 has also increased, rising from 86% to 88% over the past two weeks (to week of 22-Aug-2022).

In addition, data from the CAPA Fleet Database show that Europe’s passenger jet fleet in service is almost back to pre-COVID levels, led by LCCs, and with legacy airlines not far behind.
In the week commencing 22-Aug-2022, total European capacity is scheduled to be 32.8 million seats, according to OAG schedules and CAPA seat configurations.

This is 11.4% below the 37.0 million seats of the equivalent week of 2019 and an improvement of 1.3ppts from last week’s -12.7%.

After 13 weeks in a narrow range between -12.5% and -14.4% since late May-2022, Europe has broken through to record its best week of the pandemic era on this measure.

This week’s total seat capacity for Europe is split between 7.9 million domestic seats, versus 8.1 million in the equivalent week of 2019; and 24.9 million international seats, versus 28.9 million in 2019.

Europe’s domestic seats are down by 2.4% versus 2019 – up from last week’s -4.1% and the strongest performance for the domestic market since before the pandemic.

International seat capacity is down by 13.9% versus 2019 – up from last week’s -15.1% and its best pandemic era level.
Europe remains in fourth place in the ranking of regions measured by seats as a percentage of 2019 levels this week.

With capacity down by 11.4%, Europe is 11.4ppts better than sixth placed Asia Pacific, where capacity is down by 22.8%, and 2.8ppts above the Middle East, where seat count is down by 14.2%.

Capacity is down by 11.0% in Africa, by 8.5% in North America, and by 2.3% in Latin America.

Latin America is now closer to 2019 capacity levels than any region has been since before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Europe, North America and Latin America have taken upward steps in the trend this week, whereas Middle East, Asia Pacific and Africa have taken downward steps.
According to data from OAG and CAPA, Europe’s capacity as a percentage of 2019 levels improved with each successive quarter of 2021: it was 27% in 1Q2021, 34% in 2Q2021, 64% in 3Q2021 and 71% in 4Q2021.

The improvement is continuing in 2022 so far. Capacity for 1Q2022 was 74% of 1Q2019 levels and 2Q2022 was at 84% of 2Q2019 levels.

Projections for 3Q2022 are at 87.5% of 3Q2019 seat numbers, which is a small increase from last week’s 87.1%, thanks to a 1.0% increase in Sep-2022 scheduled capacity. This is an almost unprecedented example in the pandemic era of the current quarter’s schedule being increased.

…and 4Q2022 is raised from 87% to 88%
Looking ahead to 4Q2022, the projection has been increased to 88.2% from 87.0% last week, a second successive week of increase (it was projected at 86.0% two weeks ago).

Just as the current week has broken out above the 86% to 87% range that Europe capacity had occupied since late May-2022, so too has 4Q2022.