Boeing predicts long-term resilience in commercial aviation market
Boeing has released its annual forecast for the commercial and defence aerospace market, reflecting the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The Boeing Market Outlook projects that the commercial aviation and services markets will continue to face significant challenges due to the pandemic, while global defence and government services markets remain more stable.
“While this year has been unprecedented in terms of its disruption to our industry, we believe that aerospace and defence will overcome these near-term challenges, return to stability and emerge with strength,” said Boeing chief strategy officer, Marc Allen.
The BMO forecasts a total market value of $8.5 trillion over the next decade including demand for aerospace products and services.
The forecast is down from $8.7 trillion a year ago due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Airlines globally have begun to recover from a greater than 90 per cent decline in passenger traffic and revenue early this year, but a full recovery will take years, according to the outlook.
The 2020 Boeing Market Outlook includes projected demand for 18,350 commercial airplanes in the next decade – 11 per cent lower than the comparable 2019 forecast – valued at about $2.9 trillion.
In the longer term, with key industry drivers expected to remain stable, the commercial fleet is forecasted to return to its growth trend, generating demand for more than 43,000 new airplanes in the 20-year forecast time period.
The BMO also projects a $2.6 trillion market opportunity for defence and space during the next decade.
This spending projection reflects the ongoing importance of military aircraft, autonomous systems, satellites, spacecraft and other products to national and international defence.
This demand continues to be global in nature with 40 per cent of expenditures expected to originate outside of the United States.
“Commercial aviation is facing historic challenges this year, significantly affecting near- and medium-term demand for airplanes and services,” said Darren Hulst, vice president, commercial marketing, Boeing.
“Yet history has also proven air travel to be resilient time and again.
“The current disruption will inform airline fleet strategies long into the future, as airlines focus on building versatile fleets, networks and business model innovations that deliver the most capability and greatest efficiency at the lowest risk for sustainable growth.”