New passenger demand analysis reveals inter-regional hot spots of airline traffic growth

New passenger demand analysis reveals inter-regional hot spots of airline traffic growth

Asia Pacific and the Middle East, followed by Europe, have become global hot spots for inter-regional long distance air travel, according to analysis by the market intelligence solution Amadeus Total Demand by airconomy. The review looks at trends in worldwide passenger demand in between regions over the last two years, comparing the first quarter of 2009 to the first quarters of both 2010 and 2011*.

Demand for air traffic between Asia Pacific and the Middle East grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 13% to almost 3 million passengers a month** in the first quarter of 2011. Dubai remains the most prominent origin and destination amongst the fastest growing city pairs, such as Dubai-Mumbai, Dubai-Karachi and Dubai-Delhi.

Traffic between the Middle East and Europe has surged 10.7% CAGR over the last two years, creating a market of approximately 2.4 million passengers a month. Dubai, London and Paris are the chief contributors to this trend, with London-Tel Aviv, Paris-Cairo, and Dubai-London as examples of rapidly growing city pairs.
“The Middle East is frequently misconceived as just a point of transfer. Our data, however, shows strong evidence of the sharp increase as origin or final destination of this part of the world,” says David Doctor, Director, Amadeus Airline and Travel Agency Distribution.

European demand to and from Asia Pacific added a hefty 4.8% CAGR to a traffic flow which is already the strongest worldwide, given there are nearly 3.5 million passengers in this market. Of the top city-pairs contributing to this growth, London is the busiest travel point. London-Bangkok, London-Delhi and London-Hong Kong, are among the top city pairs causing this increase.

Air flows between regions in other markets, although robust in absolute passenger volume, were not able to exhibit growth figures in the same range as those in between Asia Pacific, Europe and the Middle East. Such is the case of passenger streams between North America and Europe which have stagnated since 2009 despite economic recovery. At 6.1% CAGR, demand between North America and Asia Pacific represents the most significant increase in intercontinental flows for the North American region.

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BRIC economies, especially Brazil and Russia, are also among the most powerful engines driving up traffic flows worldwide. China and India are equally flourishing, albeit at a slower pace. Passenger traffic between Brazil and the Middle East is up by 77%; Brazil and Russia by 63%; and Brazil and India by 34%. Traveller flux between Russia and South America grew by 41%; Russia to Africa by 31% and Russia to Asia Pacific by 27%.

The global emerging economic centres are also leading in domestic growth. Domestic traffic is increasing every year in Brazil by 28%; Russia by 23%; as well as China and India by 14%. China is the second largest domestic air travel market in absolute terms with circa 20 million passengers.

“In the past, the travel industry could only guess long distance passenger volumes in between major intercontinental hubs. Today, Amadeus Total Demand by airconomy gives an accurate view of total passengers carried on any given city-pair,” says Philipp Goedeking, Managing Director, airconomy.

Amadeus Total Demand by airconomy is able to provide detailed demand data for any city-pair in the world. Data is mined from a large number of sources including low cost carriers, airline direct online sales as well as from the GDS distribution channel. The data is then processed by a cutting edge computing algorithm and robustly tested to ensure the highest accuracy of results.

*All percentages make reference to the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) between the first quarter of 2009 and the first quarters of both 2010 and 2011.
**All passenger numbers are an estimate of the passenger volume per month in the first quarter of 2011.