Latest TIA Travel Forecast for U.S.

According to the Travel Industry Association of America`s (TIA) latest forecast, total domestic travel volume by Americans will decrease 3.5 percent in 2001 to 962.3 million person-trips*.
Domestic traveler expenditures are expected to decline twice as much in 2001, falling 7 percent below 2000, for a loss of $33.7 billion. Total inbound arrivals for 2001 are projected to decline nearly 13 percent and international traveler spending will decrease 11.2 percent, for a loss of $9.2 billion in 2001. In total, nearly $43 billion in spending by domestic and international travelers is expected to be lost during 2001. The forecast is based on TIA`s Travel Forecast Model, built by DRI-WEFA.

In 2002, total domestic travel volume and travel expenditures will both show a slight increase from the low level of 2001, but will still remain $27.4 billion below 2000. Although visits and spending by international travelers will increase faster than domestic travelers in 2002, they won`t reach 2000`s record levels until 2003. “The tragedies experienced by our nation on September 11 have had a significant impact on our nation`s travel and tourism industry, both domestic and inbound,” said William S. Norman, president and CEO of the Travel Industry Association of America. “We still have a long road ahead as we work to rebuild confidence in U.S. travel.”

The September 11 attacks and weakening economy hit business travel more severely than pleasure travel. In the fourth quarter of 2001, TIA is forecasting a 12 percent decrease in business travel and a 9 percent drop in pleasure travel, compared to the same period in 2000. For full-year 2001, business travel will decrease 6.5 percent and pleasure travel will fall 3.4 percent from 2000.

For the entire fourth quarter of 2001, air travel is projected to decline 25 percent and is expected to be down 9.4 percent overall for full-year 2001. Travel by car is expected to be down 2 percent for the fourth quarter and down 1.5 percent for full-year 2001.

Total domestic and international travel-generated employment is expected to show a dramatic decline in 2001. According to TIA, 453,500 jobs directly related to travel and tourism will be lost this year, down 5.6 percent from 2000. An additional 74,000 jobs will be cut in 2002 for a two-year total of 527,400 jobs lost from 2000 levels. *A person-trip is defined as one person on one trip of at least 50 miles, one way, away from home.