Boeing is predicting that Latin American airlines will need 1,730 airplanes worth $120 billion over the next 20 years, according to an analysis presented earlier this week at the Latin America Airfinance Conference in Rio de Janeiro.
Air travel within Latin America will grow 6.6% during this period, well above the world average growth of 5% - second only to China’s 8.8% forecasted growth rate.
The ‘Current Market Outlook’ is Boeing’s analysis of the future of commercial aviation over the next 20 years. Compiled annually, it presents global and regional insights into aviation growth.
“What our analysis shows is Latin America’s rich aviation history will continue with robust, above-average growth,” said Michael Barnett, Boeing’s director of Marketing for Latin America. “In fact, we forecast air travel within the region will increase at a rate second only to China, demonstrating continued regional vitality.”
Deliveries to airlines in Latin America will represent approximately 4% of the deliveries measured by dollar value worldwide between 2006 and 2025.
Over the next 20 years, Boeing predicts that deliveries of new airplanes in Latin American will consist of:
- 8% regional jets - less than 90 seats
- 80% single-aisle airplanes - 90 seats and above
- 12% twin-aisle airplanes - 200-400 seats, tri-class, and
- Less than 1% airplanes 747-size or larger - more than 400 seats, tri-class
Combined with the retained fleet and used airplane acquisitions, these new deliveries will result in a Latin America commercial airplane fleet of over 2, 420 airplanes by 2026.
The Boeing Latin America Current Market Outlook projects that single-aisle and twin-aisle airplanes in the 100 to 350-seat categories will account for almost all of the regional growth in air travel over the next 20 years.
Worldwide, Boeing forecasts a $2.8 trillion market for new commercial airplanes over the next 20 years and projects a need for approximately 28,600 new commercial airplanes (passenger and freighter), doubling the world fleet by 2026. The vast majority of these new airplanes the company believes will be in the single-aisle (90 seats and above) and twin-aisle (200-400 seats) categories.